Search results for "Stochastic models"

SIMULATING DEMOGRAPHY AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT DYNAMICS

2014

[EN] A deterministic/stochastic model in which the demographic and the well-being subsystems of a country are involved and related is presented as a way to approach human development. The demographic subsystem is a side-by-side, single-gender, age-structured population dynamic model. The well-being subsystem states the dynamics of the United Nations Hybrid Human Development Index. The model has been validated in the case of Spain and Belgium. Some simulations have been performed with the model for the case of Spain in the 2009-2020 period to determine strategies and scenarios that could increase the life expectancy at birth per gender. Copyright © 2014 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Stochastic Models and Escapes Times of Financial Markets

2005

Stochastic models for wind speed forecasting

2011

Abstract This paper is concerned with the problem of developing a general class of stochastic models for hourly average wind speed time series. The proposed approach has been applied to the time series recorded during 4 years in two sites of Sicily, a region of Italy, and it has attained valuable results in terms both of modelling and forecasting. Moreover, the 24 h predictions obtained employing only 1-month time series are quite similar to those provided by a feed-forward artificial neural network trained on 2 years data.

Modeling of spanish household electrical consumptions: Simplified and detailed stochastic approach in trnsys environment

2013

The initial assessment of electric energy demands of a building is a key element in the design process, that should be integrated in the earlier stages of the design of a net zero energy building. The objective of the study is the creation of predictive models of household electrical consumptions in the Mediterranean/Spanish climate and its implementation in TRNSYS 17 environment. The models offer both a simplified level of analysis, based on average seasonal electrical consumptions trends and a stochastic in-depth level for the simulation of peak loads through the compiling of multiple TRNSYS types.

SINGLE FACTOR STOCHASTIC MODELS WITH SEASONALITY APPLIED TO UNDERLYING WEATHER DERIVATIVES VARIABLES

2003

This paper estimates single factor stochastic models describing daily air temperature behaviour. We modify classical financial models to reflect temperature seasonality and fit them to a time series representing temperatures in Spain. The estimated models are used in Montecarlo simulations to obtain heating and cooling degree-days, which are used as an underlying reference in weather derivatives. The final goal of this work is to obtain an insight into weather derivative valuation, and so making it easier to manage economic activity risks closely related to temperature (i.e. oil, gas and electricity prices and volumes). En este trabajo se estiman modelos estocásticos unifactoriales que desc…

Noise-induced behavioral change driven by transient chaos

2022

We study behavioral change in the context of a stochastic, non-linear consumption model with preference adjusting, interdependent agents. Changes in long-run consumption behavior are modelled as noise induced transitions between coexisting attractors. A particular case of multistability is considered: two fixed points, whose immediate basins have smooth boundaries, coexist with a periodic attractor, with a fractal immediate basin boundary. If a trajectory leaves an immediate basin, it enters a set of complexly intertwined basins for which final state uncertainty prevails. The standard approach to predicting transition events rooted in the stochastic sensitivity function technique due to Mil…

Constraints on Cosmic Strings Using Data from the Third Advanced LIGO–Virgo Observing Run

2021

We search for gravitational-wave signals produced by cosmic strings in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo full O3 data set. Search results are presented for gravitational waves produced by cosmic string loop features such as cusps, kinks and, for the first time, kink-kink collisions.cA template-based search for short-duration transient signals does not yield a detection. We also use the stochastic gravitational-wave background energy density upper limits derived from the O3 data to constrain the cosmic string tension, $G\mu$, as a function of the number of kinks, or the number of cusps, for two cosmic string loop distribution models.cAdditionally, we develop and test a third model which interpolat…

A Geometrical Channel Model for MIMO Mobile-to-Mobile Fading Channels in Cooperative Networks

2009

This paper deals with the modeling and analysis of narrowband multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) mobile- to-mobile (M2M) fading channels in relay-based cooperative networks. Non-line-of-sight (NLOS) propagation conditions are assumed in the transmission links from the source mobile station to the destination mobile station via the mobile relay. A stochastic narrowband MIMO M2M reference channel model is derived from the geometrical three-ring scattering model, where it is assumed that an infinite number of local scatterers surround the source mobile station, the mobile relay, and the destination mobile station. The complex channel gains associated with the new reference channel model are…